Techno-News Blog Ray Schroeder, editor, OTEL - University of Illinois at Springfield |
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Thursday, October 11, 2001
http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1273-210-7478912-1.html?tag=bt_bh Transcending Moore's Law By Steve Jurvetson Intel co-founder Gordon Moore chuckled at those who, in decades past, predicted the imminent demise of Moore's Law. This is the dictum that resulted from his observation in 1965 that transistor density doubles every 18 months, a pattern that has held true to this day. But the traditional semiconductor chip is finally approaching some fundamental physical limits. Dr. Moore recently admitted that his law, as we know it, will run out of gas in 2017.... If history is any guide, Moore's Law will transcend CMOS silicon and jump to a different substrate. It has done so five times in the past. In his forthcoming book, "The Singularity Is Near," Ray Kurzweil traces the historical exponential capability curves for a variety of technologies....
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